Who Will Prosper in the New World? August 31, 2013, New York Times, Tyler Cowens, Economics Professor @ George Mason
Self-driving vehicles threaten to send truck drivers to the unemployment office. Computer programs can now write journalistic accounts of sporting events and stock price movements. There are even computers that can grade essay exams with reasonable accuracy, which could revolutionize my own job, teaching. Increasingly, machines are providing not only the brawn but the brains, too, and that raises the question of where humans fit into this picture — who will prosper and who won’t in this new kind of machine economy?
Who will do well?
THE CONSCIENTIOUS Within five years we are likely to have the world’s best education, or close to it, online and free. But not everyone will sit down and go through the material without a professor pushing them to do the work.
Those who are motivated to use online resources will do much, much better in the generations to come. It’s already the case that the best students from India are at the top in many Coursera classes, putting America’s arguably less motivated bright young people to shame. “Free” doesn’t really help you if you don’t make an effort. PEOPLE WHO LISTEN TO COMPUTERS Your smartphone will record data on your life and, when asked, will tell you what to do, drawing on data from your home or from your spouse and friends if need be. “You’ve thrown out that bread the last three times you’ve bought it, give it a pass” will be a text message of the future. How about “Now is not the time to start another argument with your wife”? The GPS is just the beginning of computer-guided instruction.
Take your smartphone on a date, and it might vibrate in your pocket to indicate “Kiss her now.” If you hesitate for fear of being seen as pushy, it may write: “Who cares if you look bad? You are sampling optimally in the quest for a lifetime companion.” Those who won’t listen, or who rebel out of spite, will be missing out on glittering prizes. Those of us who listen, while often envied, may feel more like puppets with deflated pride.
PEOPLE WITH A MARKETING TOUCH There will be a lot more wealth in this brave new world, but it won’t be very evenly distributed because a lot of human labor won’t seem like a special or scarce resource. Capturing the attention of customers with just the right human touch will command an increasing premium. Don’t forget that Mark Zuckerberg was a psychology major in addition to being a tech genius. Sheer technical skill can be done by the machines, but integrating the tech side with an attention-grabbing innovation is a lot harder.
MOTIVATORS A lot of jobs will consist of making people feel either very good or very bad about themselves. Coaches, mentors and disciplinarians will spread to many areas of life, at least for those of us who can stand to listen to them. These people will cajole us, flatter us and shame us into improving our lives, our work habits and our consumption. That’s why so many people go to yoga class instead of relying on the podcast. Managers who are motivators of first-rate talent will see their earnings continue to rise.
Who will be most likely to suffer from this technological revolution?
PEOPLE WITH DELICATE FEELINGS Computing and software will make it easier to measure performance and productivity.
It will be harder to gloss over our failings and maintain self-deception. In essence everyone will suffer the fate of professional chess players, who always know when they have lost a game, have an exact numerical rating for their overall performance, and find excuses for failure hard to come by.
Individuals will have many measures of their proficiency. They will have an incentive to disclose that information to get the better job or social opportunity. You’ll assume the worst about those who keep secrets, and so openness will reign. Many of us will start to hate the idea of Big Data.
PEOPLE UNLUCKY IN HEALTH CARE Quality surgery and cancer treatment cannot be automated very easily. They will be highly expensive, and unlucky health breaks will be all the more tragic because not everyone will be able to afford the best treatments. With marvelous diagnosis available online, some people will get the right treatments early on, whereas others will know exactly what they are dying from.
PEOPLE WHO DON’T NEED MONEY We are used to thinking in terms of rich, poor and middle class, but those categories will change. Berlin’s eastern neighborhoods and Williamsburg, Brooklyn, are a window onto our future. These urban areas are full of people who are bright, culturally literate, Internet-savvy and far from committed to the idea of hard work directed toward earning a good middle-class living. We’ll need a new name for the group of people who have the incomes of the lower middle class and the cultural habits of the wealthy or upper middle class. They will spread a libertarian worldview that working for other people full time is an abominable way to get by.
POLITICAL RADICALS: A mechanized, computer-driven, highly unequal future is sometimes viewed as a recipe for rebellion. But the Edward J. Snowden saga shows this won’t be easy, as tech is at least as much an instrument for surveillance and control as it is for revolt. We’re also aging rapidly, and that tends to make society more peaceful, less violent and less extreme in all directions. It was the 1960s, a peak era for manufacturing jobs and the American middle class, that brought so much social turmoil and unrest. The more that work is done by machines, the less compelling is the case for putting your manufacturing in a distant country where wages are low. If there is any big winner from all of these trends, it is probably the good ol’ United States.
Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University and the author of the forthcoming book “Average is Over,” from which this essay is adapted.
I think it is important that the virtues of uncertainty are broad enough to take beyond the school gates: that, surely, is the point of learning how to learn. Dealing with the real uncertainties of modern life, and developing one’s own passionate interests and avocations, are usually not at all like school. The carefully planned, predigested, sequenced and graded kinds of bite-size learning in which conventional schooling trades are not the kinds of learning for which young people need to be prepared. An apprenticeship in passing exams leaves even the most successful with a skill for which there is little call once they have left university. Few job adverts specify that applicants ‘must be able to sit still, copy down notes, and regurgitate disembedded chunks of information under pressure.’ So what are the learning virtues that I think are most important? There are eight:
1. Curiosity is the starting point. If you are not interested in things that are difficult or puzzling, you won’t engage. Curious people have an abiding sense of inquisitiveness. They wonder how things come to be, how they work, whether they might be otherwise. They live in a wonder-full world, not a world of dead certainties and cut-and-dried rules. They know how to ask good, pertinent, penetrating questions. They have a healthy scepticism about what they are told.
2. Young people surely need courage; not necessarily physical valour but the capacity to be up for a challenge, to be willing to take a risk and see what happens, not always playing it safe and sticking to things they know they can do. Courageous learners have the determination to stick with things that are hard, (although it is also a virtue to know when to quit, not because you are feeling stupid but because it really isn’t worth it). They bounce back from frustration; they don’t stay floored for long.
3. Exploration is the active counterpart of curiosity. Inquisitive people enjoy the process of finding things out, of researching (whether it be footballers’ lives or particle physics). They like reading, but they also enjoy just looking at things, letting details and patterns emerge. They can let themselves get immersed in a book or a game; absorption in learning is often a pleasure. They can concentrate. They like sifting and evaluating ‘evidence’, not just reading or surfing the net uncritically, and their exploration usually breeds more questions. Explorers are also good at finding, making or capitalising on resources (tools, sources of information, people) that will support their investigations.
4. Experimentation is the virtue of the practical inventor, actively trying things out to see if they work. Experimenters like tinkering, tuning and looking for small improvements. They don’t have to have a grand, ostensibly foolproof scheme before they try something out; they are at home with trial and error. They spend a good deal of time just playing with materials — paint, cogs, computer graphics — to see what they will do, uncovering new ‘affordances.’ They are happy practising, they enjoy drafting and redrafting, looking at what they’ve produced — a garden bed, an essay, a melody — and thinking about how they could build on and improve their own products and performances.
5. Imagination is the virtue of fantasy, of using the inner world as a test-bed for ideas and as a theatre of possibilities. Good imaginers have the virtue of dreaminess: they know when and how to make use of reverie, how to let ideas come to them. They have a mixture of healthy respect and sceptical appraisal toward their own hunches and intuitions. They use mental rehearsal to develop their skills and readiness for tricky situations. They like finding links and making connections inside their own minds. They use imagery and metaphor in their thinking.
6. The creativity of imagination needs to be yoked to the virtue of discipline; of being able to think carefully, rigorously and methodically, as well as to take an imaginative leap. Reason isn’t the be-all and end-all of learning by any means, but the ability to follow a rigorous train of thought, and to spot the holes in someone else’s argument, as well as your own, is invaluable. Disciplined learners can create plans and forms of structure and organisation which support the painstaking ‘crafting’ of things that usually needs to follow the ‘brainwave.’
7. The virtue of sociability, and of judiciously balancing sociability with solitariness, also seems essential. Effective learners know who to talk to (and who not), and when to talk (and when to keep silent) about their own learning. And they are good members of groups: they know how to listen, how to take turns, what kinds of contribution are helpful. They have the knack of being able to give their views and hold their own in debate, and at the same time stay open-minded to and respectful of others’ views: of giving feedback and suggestions skilfully and receiving them graciously. They are generous in sharing information, ideas and useful ways of thinking and exploring; and they are keen to pick up useful perspectives and strategies from others.
8. Finally there is the virtue of mindfulness, in the sense of being disposed to reflection and contemplation, taking time to mull things over, take stock and consider alternative strategies. Not paralysed by self-consciousness but capable of self-awareness, reflective learners can take a step back every so often and question their own priorities and assumptions. Thinking about your own thinking isn’t always useful (despite the current fad for ‘metacognition’) but it is needed at strategic moments. Mindfulness means giving yourself the time to go deeper, to see what conclusions you may have leapt to, and let a bigger picture emerge.
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